The Scottish government should aim for a 90% reduction in carbon emissions by 2050, according to the Committee on Climate Change (CCC).
The independent advisory body was asked for its advice in advance of the Scottish government’s new legislation on climate change, which is expected to be tabled later this year. The country has already cut its emissions by around 40% from 1990 to 2014.
In its report, the CCC said Scotland’s target to reduce greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions by 80% by 2050 from 1990 levels was stretching, but that there was a case for strengthening it in order to meet the Paris Agreement’s aspiration to keep global temperature rises to 1.5ºC.
Setting a stricter 2050 target now would require action that is currently ‘at the very limit of feasibility,’ the committee said. However, the government had two options:
• Retain the current target of an 80% reduction in emissions by 2050, but commit in the new legislation to review it at future dates and amend it as further evidence about emissions reductions options and their costs emerged.
• Set a stronger 90% target and pledge to reduce CO2 emissions to ‘net-zero’ to reflect the commitment under the Paris Agreement to reach net zero global emissions in the second half of the century.
To make a 90% target more feasible, the CCC recommended that Scotland set tighter interim targets to reduce emissions by 56% by 2020, and 66% by 2030.
The committee also recommended that the Scottish emissions accounting framework be based on actual emissions, instead of the current system which adjusts emissions in line with the EU emissions trading system (EU ETS).
This would be more transparent and would encourage decarbonisation across all sectors of the Scottish economy, the CCC said. Provisions should be made to ensure that the shift does not result in industrial production leaving Scotland, it added.
Furthermore, Scotland’s share of international aviation and shipping should be included in targets. Given the CCC’s recommendation that emissions accounting be based on actual emissions, rather than net emissions used for UK carbon budgets, the inclusion of aviation and shipping emissions, based on fuel sales, would present no practical challenges.
Committee member Professor Jim Skea said: ‘Scotland has been leading the way in reducing emissions while continuing to grow its economy. The Paris Agreement represents a landmark change in global action to tackle climate change. The proposed legislation could allow Scotland to build on its own progress and international changes.
‘In doing so, the Scottish Parliament should reflect on the right balance between ambition and achievement, as well as the range of direct and indirect benefits that come with acting to reduce carbon emissions.’
