Droughts are predicted to be longer, and more frequent and acute than previously thought, according to analysis by the water industry and climate experts.
The assessment looked at the combined impact on water supplies in England and Wales of climate change, population and economic growth, and reductions in water abstraction to protect the aquatic environment.
It concluded that the south and east of England face in the future a higher risk of severe drought than in the past, while English regions in the north and west would also suffered more water shortages.
The economic cost of not taking action to prevent drought could be up to £1.3bn a day during the most severe event modelled in the report. By contrast, improving drought resilience was estimated to cost around £4 a year per household.
The analysis attempted to calculate the potential loss of gross value added (GVA) in specific industries under different drought scenarios, ranging from mild events that resulted in temporary bans of equipment such as hosepipes, to the most severe, which would involve introducing emergency drought orders.
Production of food, drink and tobacco could lose 10% of GVA under temporary bans, but this could rise to 75% in the event of an emergency drought order being issued. Meanwhile, milder droughts would have little financial impact on the manufacture of wood and paper products and printing, although these industries could lose 50% of GVA if emergency drought measures were implemented.
The report pointed out that companies’ level of resilience to drought is a matter of public interest and policy since public water supply takes precedence in times of water stress. This could, for example, reduce the amount available for agriculture, it said.
The report recommends urgent action to reduce the risk of drought through a combination of managing demand and enhancing supplies.
- Demand – promoting water efficiency in homes and businesses, through the introduction improved building standards; widespread use of smart metering; and by tackling leaks from water mains.
- Supply – water supply could be increased by moving it from one region to another through existing waterways and new pipelines; building new reservoirs; treating more water for reuse; and building desalination plants to make more use of sea water.
The research was commissioned by Water UK and carried out by consultants at Atkins, Mott Macdonald, NERA Economic Consulting, HR Wallingford and the Environmental Change Institute at Oxford University. Peer reviewers included professor Jim Hall, a member of the Committee on Climate Change adaptation committee, and Dr Steven Wade from the Met Office.
Michael Roberts, chief executive of Water UK, said that the industry had invested billions of pounds in securing water resources but, given current and future pressures on resources, it needed to do more in conjunction with others.
‘We are publishing this ground-breaking research so that water companies, government, regulators and other agencies can together raise their game in how we plan to keep homes and businesses supplied over the next 50 years,’ he said.
Rose O’Neil, freshwater programme manager at WWF, called for the government to bring forward reform of abstraction licences in a new water bill: ‘Abstraction licences ensure that rivers don’t dry up as demand for water increases. Yet the system is out-of-date, unsustainable and not fit for purpose. Only one in five licences offer anything by way of environmental protection, and some licences allow abstraction of water that, in future, may not even be there.'
